Tracking Time โ An update on Floridaโs biggest races
Weโre now just over 50 days away from the general election and Floridaโs two biggest races this year are exact opposites of one another. A year ago, just about everyone thought weโd have a Nelson vs Scott match-up for the US Senate. A race featuring two of the biggest names in Florida politics. Conversely, a year ago, few Floridians were even familiar with the names Gillum and DeSantis let alone of the belief that theyโd be their party nominees.
Let's start with Floridaโs senate race. Weโve had two polls roll in within the past week and we do have a small change from over a week ago. Hereโs the current average. Nelson stayed at 47% and Scott has gone up one at 48%. As for the others, 2% and undecided at 3%.
Not surprisingly there aren't many undecided voters left in this race. Itโs rare to have two candidates as well established and known throughout the state running against one another. Also, this continues to look like a race thatโll come down to the wire. The one change over a week ago is that Governor Scott has edged out to an ever so slight lead in this race.
Of course, Rick Scott isnโt accustomed to anything other than super-close races having won twice by 1%. Nelson hasnโt faced a serious challenger since his initial race in 2000, so itโs unclear how late-breaking voters might break in this race.
Now, let's switch gears to our Governor's race. Weโve also had three new polls roll in over the past week and theyโre still pointed in the same direction. A close race with an advantage for Andrew Gillum. Hereโs an average of the most recent polling. Gillum came in at 47%, followed by DeSantis at 44%. The percentage for others is at 1% and we still have 8% of undecided voters.
Most of the polling conducted doesnโt include any potential impact from the announced running mates, Chris King for Andrew Gillum and Jeanette Nunez for Ron DeSantis. Somewhat notable is that with new polling we donโt have many changes except for the โotherโ category.
There are three independent candidates and a reform party candidate that will be on Novemberโs ballots. Between them, theyโre now polling at 1%. Thatโs up from 0 last week and might seem silly to discuss. However, weโre well aware of the potential impact of 3rd party and independent candidates in close statewide elections. Should this race come down to another 1%ish margin of victory, those who opt to break for these candidates over the major party candidates could prove to be decisive.
When digging deeper into the data, 90% of voters are already solidly decided. Knowing that the political differences of these candidates are so stark and the race is so close, the fight to win over these voters is critical. Also, as of now, the approach these candidates will take is also unclear.
Will Gillum attempt to win over undecideds with his hard left Impeach Trump and abolish ICE messaging or will he moderate? Will Ron DeSantis run on Trumpโs coattails boldly or will he take a page from Rick Scottโs pragmatic playbook?
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